As fears of mass deportations grow, many undocumented immigrants are staying home, sparking widespread labor shortages in industries reliant on immigrant labor, such as construction, agriculture, senior care, and hospitality. Employers across these sectors are warning that the impact of these shortages will only worsen, leading to disruptions that will affect American consumers and businesses alike.

In Freehold, New Jersey, where day laborers, most of whom are undocumented immigrants from Latin America, once gathered daily for work, the streets have fallen silent. Mario, a laborer from Mexico who has lived in the U.S. for two decades, explained, “Because of the president, we have a fear.” He added, “We are in difficult times.”

This fear has spread across the country, from farms in California’s Central Valley to nursing homes in Arizona and poultry plants in Georgia. The recent intensification of immigration enforcement, driven by President Trump’s promise of a “mass deportation,” has caused many undocumented workers to stay home. Although arrests have been limited so far, the mere threat is enough to keep immigrant workers away.

The effects are being felt not only in immigrant communities but in industries that rely heavily on these workers. Rebecca Shi, CEO of the American Business Immigration Coalition, noted, “Businesses across industries know what comes next when their workforce disappears—restaurants, coffee shops, and grocery stores struggling to stay open, food prices soaring, and everyday Americans demanding action.”

An estimated 20% of the U.S. labor force is foreign-born, and millions of immigrant workers are undocumented. Many of them have found refuge under the Temporary Protected Status (TPS) program, which shields individuals from deportation and grants them work permits. However, Trump’s administration has announced plans to phase out TPS, starting with Venezuelan and Haitian beneficiaries.

The refugee pipeline, another critical source of low-skilled labor for sectors like poultry, warehouses, and manufacturing, has also been disrupted. Trump’s decision to shut down the U.S. refugee program, which has only been temporarily restored by a federal judge, has left many industries facing future labor shortages.

Kezia Scales, vice president at PHI, a research organization focused on long-term care, warned that the elder care industry would face a “recruitment crisis” without immigrant workers. She added, “If immigrants are prevented from entering this workforce or are forced to leave the country by restrictive immigration policies and rhetoric, we will face systems collapse and catastrophic consequences for millions of people who rely on these workers.”

In construction, where up to 19% of workers are undocumented, labor shortages have already reached critical levels. Nik Theodore, a professor of urban planning and policy at the University of Illinois, cautioned, “Any removals of construction workers are going to exacerbate that problem.” He added, “Inevitably, it will slow the work, which leads to cost increases because of the production delays.” The resulting price hikes would affect everyone, from developers to private homeowners.

The commercial construction sector is also at risk of increased costs due to a tightening labor market. Zack Fritz, an economist with Associated Builders and Contractors, explained that upward wage pressure would drive up costs for building projects. Michael D. Bellaman, CEO of the association, called for an immigration overhaul, particularly the expansion of work visas, to address the industry's labor needs.

Even Houston Mayor John Whitmire highlighted the essential role undocumented immigrants play in his city, saying, “You know who’s paving our roads and building our houses.”

The senior care sector, facing a growing demand for workers as the population ages, is similarly dependent on immigrant labor. Adam Lampert, CEO of Manchester Care Homes in Texas, shared, “We don’t go out looking for people who are immigrants. We go out hiring people who answer the call—and they are all immigrants.” Lampert noted that 80% of his caregivers are foreign-born and warned that mass deportations would exacerbate the existing recruitment challenges in this field.

In states like New York, California, and Maryland, a significant percentage of those working in elder care homes are foreign-born. If deportations affect these workers, there will be increased competition for fewer caregivers, potentially raising the cost of in-home care.

The ongoing immigration crackdowns have also strained mixed-status families, as U.S. citizens or green card holders face the risk of losing family members to deportation. Molly Johnson, general manager of FirstLight Home Care in California, reflected on how one of her standout caregivers, a U.S. citizen, quit after her mother was detained by immigration agents. She lamented, “Unfortunately, we are going to be seeing more of this trickle-down effect.”

For industries like agriculture, where immigrants have filled chronic labor gaps, the future remains uncertain. The workers deemed “essential” during the pandemic, such as those employed at Deardorff Family Farms in California, now face an unpredictable future as deportation threats loom.

As industries brace for the repercussions of mass deportations, many employers are left wondering how to cope with the void left behind by immigrant workers, and whether consumers will feel the impact through higher prices and disrupted services.

Originally reported by Rebecca Davis o'Brien in The New York Times.