Former President Donald Trump is taking aim at America’s reliance on foreign lumber with a new directive that has the potential to reshape the U.S. timber industry—and put additional strain on housing affordability.

Trump has issued an executive order directing the U.S. Forest Service and the Department of the Interior to ramp up timber sales from public lands. The order, unveiled in March, argues that “heavy-handed federal policies” have long hindered the full utilization of domestic forest resources.

At the same time, the administration has launched a national security investigation under Section 232 to assess whether lumber imports, particularly from Canada, pose a threat to U.S. interests. Trump framed the issue bluntly: “We don’t need their lumber. We don’t need anything that they give,” he said, signaling a hard-line stance on trade with Canada.

The U.S. construction sector, which uses more than 50 billion board feet of lumber each year, currently produces only about 70% of what it needs. Canada supplies roughly 25% of that demand, making it a vital trade partner for U.S. builders—especially during periods of high housing demand.

Critics and industry experts say the effort to reduce reliance on Canadian lumber may be easier said than done. “The U.S. would have to build 70 new sawmills to make up the difference,” said Pete Stewart, CEO of market analytics firm ResourceWise. “A new sawmill costs roughly $250 million to build and takes two years.”

Beyond cost, geography poses another challenge. While forests in the Southeastern U.S.—from Virginia to eastern Texas—currently grow about 30% more trees than local mills process, forests in the Pacific Northwest are already being harvested to their full potential.

Canadian industry officials, meanwhile, are defending their lumber’s quality and value. “Spruce pine fir doesn’t warp or twist and is ideal for framing homes,” said Kurt Niquidet, president of the B.C. Lumber Trade Council. He noted that the Canadian product gives builders a structural advantage over Southern Yellow Pine, one of the U.S.’s primary softwood species.

Underlying the dispute is a decades-long trade battle over lumber. The U.S. has repeatedly accused Canada of unfair trade practices, arguing that Canadian timber is artificially cheap due to low fees charged for harvesting trees on government-owned lands. In contrast, most American timberlands are privately owned and subject to market pricing.

To level the playing field, the U.S. Commerce Department has maintained a 14.5% tariff on Canadian softwood lumber since 2017 and recently proposed plans to more than double the rate. Trump’s Section 232 investigation could open the door to even steeper duties under the guise of national security.

However, some say the logic behind the security argument is weak. “We are importing from one of our most friendly allies and neighbors,” Stewart pointed out. “How does lumber impact national security? Obviously tangentially, but not really.”

Meanwhile, housing advocates warn that the consequences could ripple across the economy. The National Association of Home Builders has cautioned that further tariff hikes could drive up material costs and exacerbate the nation’s housing affordability crisis. With mortgage rates already elevated and home prices still outpacing incomes in many markets, the prospect of more expensive lumber adds pressure to a system already stretched thin.

While Trump’s push to reinvigorate domestic timber production may resonate with rural voters and logging communities, industry insiders and economists alike are urging caution. With Canada still playing a central role in the U.S. lumber supply chain, any major disruption risks unintended consequences for builders, homebuyers, and the broader economy.

Originally Reported By The Washington Times Newsroom.