Loudoun County, Va. — Loudoun County Public Schools leaders say the district is preparing for several years of shrinking student enrollment, a shift that could reshape staffing levels and future school construction plans in one of Northern Virginia’s historically fastest-growing areas.
New projections presented during a school board meeting last month show student enrollment is expected to drop to 80,201 students in fiscal 2026, a slight decline of 0.3% from this year’s unofficial total. By 2031, the division estimates enrollment could fall to 77,360 students — a continuing downward trend that began in 2023 after years of growth dating back to 2016.
District officials say the slowdown reflects broader demographic changes. Families are leaving the county, housing prices remain a burden for young adults and first-time buyers, and local birth rates are dropping along with national patterns. Communities are also aging in place, with fewer children in homes that once housed large families.
“We are seeing a slowing and declining in our enrollment,” said Beverly Tate, director of planning and GIS services. “It’s certainly going to have an effect on staffing. It’s going to have an effect on new school construction.”
Because enrollment is falling, Loudoun is no longer planning to expand school capacity at the pace seen in the last decade. Tate said the district believes its current facilities can accommodate projected student populations for the foreseeable future.
With the exception of one new high school already in the pipeline, Tate said the district isn’t anticipating opening any additional schools:
“Because our enrollments are dropping, and we believe we have the capacity within our facilities to serve those students.”
The steepest reductions are expected among kindergarten through fifth-grade students — a sign that fewer young families are settling in Loudoun. However, the district forecasts a gradual increase at the high school level, likely due to older student populations aging up through the system.
Despite the county’s strong economy and desirable schools, rising home prices may be pushing out younger residents who might otherwise start families locally.
“We have older people who are here to stay,” Tate said, “but no more children coming out of our house.”
Some students shifted to private or homeschool options during the pandemic, but Tate noted:
“There is no red flags for us, of concern, with this.”
While Loudoun’s numbers continue to slip, its neighbors remain steady:
These nearby enrollments suggest the shift may be uniquely tied to Loudoun’s affordability and demographic challenges — not broader regional weakness.
As the district works to adjust staffing and long-term capital plans, some board members believe the slowdown reflects years of rapid expansion.
“I personally think we may have overbuilt,” Board Member Deana Griffiths said, acknowledging a dramatic change from the surge in enrollment that defined Loudoun’s growth era.
Originally reported by Scott Gelman in WTOP News.
