US Roofing Market: A Forecast of Slow Growth and Shifting Trends

US roofing demand is expected to experience a slight decline over the next few years, with annual average growth rates falling below 1% to reach 276.5 million squares by 2028. This slowdown can be attributed to the surge in reroofing demand following severe weather events in 2020, 2021, and 2023, particularly in the southern United States. As homeowners and businesses have already replaced their damaged roofs, the need for immediate reroofing will diminish in the near future.

Key Trends and Forecasts:

• Rising Housing Starts Boost New Residential Roofing: As single-family housing starts recover from recent declines, demand for new residential roofing will increase. This trend will drive demand for more durable materials like high-performance laminates, metal, and tile roofing to withstand severe weather.
• Solar Roofing Continues to Grow, but at a Slower Pace: While solar roofing remains a niche product compared to traditional options, it will continue to experience strong growth. However, factors such as changes in net energy metering policies and higher interest rates may temper its expansion.
• Historical Market Trends: Roofing demand is influenced by various factors, including housing starts, the age of the housing stock, interest rates, commercial building activity, and weather conditions. Age-related reroofing remains the primary driver of US roofing demand.
• New vs. Reroofing: Roofing products are used in both new construction and reroofing projects. The choice of material depends on factors like previous installations, customer preferences, cost, and durability.
• Product Lifespans: Manufacturers are focusing on creating more durable roofing materials to reduce the need for frequent repairs and replacements. Techniques like laminated shingles, chemical modifiers, thicker scrims, and mineral granules can extend the lifespan of roofing products.

Market value is anticipated to remain stagnant, marking a significant departure from the rapid growth observed between 2018 and 2023. The moderation in roofing product prices, following spikes caused by supply chain disruptions and high raw material costs, will contribute to this stabilization. Although overall demand will decrease, the value of the roofing market will remain relatively stable due to the increasing popularity of higher-quality roofing products with enhanced performance and aesthetic appeal.

This industry report analyzes the $25 billion US roofing market, providing historical demand data (2013, 2018, and 2023) and forecasts (2028 and 2033). It also offers annual data for the years 2020–2027, breaking down unit demand and value demand by material, product type, and market segment. The study includes an evaluation of company market share and competitive analysis of industry leaders such as GAF, Owens Corning, CertainTeed, and Johns Manville.