Construction planning posts largest decline of 2024

Institutional developments, which include life sciences and lab projects that surged during the pandemic, have now slowed down, according to Dodge Construction Network.‍

Dive Brief:

• The Dodge Momentum Index, a benchmark that measures nonresidential construction planning, tumbled 8.6% in March — the biggest drop of the year so far — due to slowdowns in both institutional and commercial planning, according to the Dodge Construction Network.
• Institutional proposals, which include education, life sciences and healthcare projects, plummeted 17.2% over the month. At the same time, commercial jobs on the boards slumped 3.2%.
• “While strong market fundamentals should support institutional planning this year, this side of the index is more at risk for a substantive correction after last year’s growth,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting for Dodge Construction Network. “The surge of lab construction in recent years may lead to decreased planning demand as the market absorbs new supply in 2024.”

Dive Insight:

The drop represents the second consecutive month of contraction, according to Dodge data.

Martin attributed much of the decline on the institutional side to lower levels of education planning, which includes labs and life science facilities.

For example, between February 2023 and February 2024, life science and research and development lab projects accounted for roughly 34% of education planning value, with that share reaching about 59% in some months. In March, however, that share dropped to just 7%, according to Dodge.

On the commercial side, slower growth in office and hotel planning continues to pull back overall planning levels.

Year over year, the Dodge Momentum Index was 12% lower than in March 2023. Commercial planning remains down 14% from last year, while institutional planning dropped 10% over the same period as well, according to Dodge.

Architectural billings improves

Along with the DMI, the Architectural Billings Index, an indicator for construction work nine to 12 months out, declined for the thirteenth consecutive month, according to the most recent data from the American Institute of Architects.

However, the pace of overall billings decline has been improving recently, suggesting the recent slowdown may be receding, according to the AIA. In addition, inquiries into new projects grew at their fastest rate since November.

A total of 14 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning in March, according to Dodge. The largest commercial projects included:

• The $215 million Microsoft data center in San Antonio, Texas.
• The $158 million Melrod data center building B in Fredericksburg, Virginia.

The largest institutional projects to enter planning included:

• The $277 million Trident Health Hospital in Johns Island, South Carolina.
• The $220 million Sunset Amphitheater in McKinney, Texas.

‍