SALEM, Ore. – Oregon is preparing for one of the most significant seismic threats in the United States: the anticipated Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake, often referred to as “The Big One.” On Monday, Gov. Tina Kotek signed an executive order requiring state-owned and leased buildings to undergo upgrades or replacement to ensure they can withstand a catastrophic quake.
The directive mandates that all new state-owned buildings larger than 10,000 square feet must be constructed to earthquake-proof standards effective immediately. By 2060, all buildings used by executive branch agencies must be retrofitted or replaced to meet the same safety benchmarks.
Kotek emphasized that the goal is not only to protect state employees but also to ensure government continuity in the aftermath of a disaster.
“When a devastating earthquake hits Oregon, we need to be able to show up for Oregonians,” Kotek said. “State employees are the backbone of emergency response, and they need safe places as they help families and communities recover. We cannot waver from this responsibility.”
Scientists estimate a 16% to 22% chance of a magnitude 8.7 or greater earthquake striking Oregon within the next 50 years, and a 42% chance of a partial rupture producing a magnitude 7.4 quake. Such an event would rival the world’s most destructive earthquakes, like the 1960 Great Chilean Earthquake (magnitude 9.5) and the 1964 Alaska earthquake (magnitude 9.2).
“An M8-9 earthquake in our future is inevitable, and seismically sound state buildings will be crucial. This is the kind of proactive action Oregon needs,” said Chris Goldfinger, professor emeritus at Oregon State University’s College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences.
The executive order outlines a phased approach. Priority will be given to large state buildings over 50,000 square feet, as well as facilities that house first responder agencies or occupy strategic locations vital to emergency management. Key examples include the Oregon Department of Education headquarters in Salem and the Bureau of Labor and Industries building in Portland.
The upgrades will require significant investment and legislative approval for funding. According to state officials, the process will span decades but is necessary to safeguard public safety and reduce long-term recovery costs.
Kotek’s order comes as Oregon nears completion of a $598 million seismic retrofit of the state Capitol. Crews have spent years strengthening the nearly 90-year-old structure by placing it on flexible base-isolation discs. This engineering feat will allow the building to remain stable even as the ground shifts beneath it — a model that could guide other major retrofitting projects.
The Capitol project illustrates both the scale of effort required and the potential benefits. Once finished, the building will not only be safer for occupants but also serve as a reliable hub for emergency operations should “The Big One” strike.
By 2060, every state-owned or leased executive branch building will either be newly constructed or retrofitted to seismic standards. Officials see the plan as part of Oregon’s long-term resilience strategy, ensuring government can function in the immediate aftermath of a disaster and that recovery efforts will not be hampered by damaged infrastructure.
While the initiative will require decades of planning, construction, and funding approvals, supporters argue that the cost of inaction would be far greater. With scientists warning of a major quake within this century, Oregon’s efforts reflect a rare level of foresight in U.S. disaster planning.
Originally reported by Alex Baumhardt, Oregon Capital Chronicle in Governing.
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