The U.S. construction industry could face intensifying labor shortages as immigration trends shift, with experts warning that the country may already be experiencing a negative immigration rate.
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In 2024, immigrants made up a record 26.3% of the construction workforce, according to an analysis by the National Association of Home Builders using data from the U.S. Census Bureau. That figure highlights the sector’s growing reliance on foreign-born labor — a dependence that may now be at risk due to policy changes and shifting migration patterns.
Industry analysts say the decline could have far-reaching consequences, particularly for commercial construction, which already struggles to fill skilled positions across jobsites.
Among tradesworkers — including electricians, plumbers and welders — roughly one-third are immigrants. In certain specialties, such as drywall installation and roofing, foreign-born workers account for more than half of the workforce.
The high concentration of immigrant labor underscores the industry’s vulnerability to immigration policy changes. According to Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America, foreign-born workers are especially prevalent in residential construction roles.
“The highest shares of foreign-born workers are all occupations heavily used in homebuilding, whereas trades with lower-than-national-average shares, such as equipment operators, are used more heavily in nonresidential construction, including infrastructure,” Simonson said.
Still, commercial contractors are not immune to the effects. Kristen Swearingen, vice president of government affairs for the Associated Builders and Contractors, emphasized the direct link between immigration trends and project delivery.
“Commercial contractors need to pay close attention to immigration data because it directly affects workforce availability and their ability to meet project demand,” Swearingen said.
The record-high share of immigrant workers was documented before Donald Trump returned to office in January 2025. Since then, stricter enforcement policies have contributed to uncertainty across the workforce.
Recent data suggests immigration levels are declining sharply. The Census Bureau reported that net immigration dropped from 2.7 million for the year ending July 2024 to 1.3 million in 2025, with projections indicating it could fall to roughly 321,000 in 2026.
A January report from the Brookings Institution suggests the U.S. may have already entered negative net migration territory, estimating a range between -10,000 and -295,000 for 2025.
“I think this shows the vulnerability of construction to measures that effectively close the borders to individuals who would otherwise be potential construction workers, while immigration enforcement is already causing some workers to stay away from jobsites,” Simonson said.
Even without widespread jobsite enforcement actions, the broader impact of heightened immigration enforcement has created hesitation among workers.
“ABC has heard from members across the country that immigration enforcement has strengthened since 2024, which has scared their employees away from going to work and possibly being detained for infractions—these are foreign-born workers who are here legally,” Swearingen said. “This has caused job delays and cost overruns for general contractors.”
The effects are already being felt in project timelines and budgets, as contractors struggle to maintain adequate staffing levels.
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In response, construction industry groups are urging policymakers to expand legal pathways for foreign-born workers.
“We and many contractors continue to urge policymakers in Washington to create a pathway for employers to sponsor qualified workers when none are available domestically,” Simonson said.
Swearingen added that ABC anticipates a market-based visa system could provide a long-term solution.
“Coupled with the proper provisions—this solution would strengthen America’s immigration laws and provide a lawful pathway for needed workers,” she said. “By basing access on market need, lawmakers can ensure that the construction workforce better reflects real economic conditions and helps stabilize projects, costs and timelines.”
As immigration trends continue to shift, industry leaders warn that without policy adjustments, the construction sector may face prolonged labor shortages that could hinder growth and delay critical projects nationwide.
Originally reported by Zachary Phillips, Senior Editor in Construction Dive.
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