Rapid expansion of artificial intelligence infrastructure and hyperscale computing is expected to dramatically increase electricity demand across the U.S. commercial building sector over the next several decades, according to new projections from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
In its Annual Energy Outlook 2026, the agency forecast that electricity consumed by data center servers could climb to between 446 billion and 818 billion kilowatthours annually by 2050, depending on future server efficiency gains and AI-related demand growth.
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The projections suggest data center infrastructure will become one of the dominant drivers of commercial electricity consumption nationwide, with server operations alone potentially accounting for between 22% and 33% of total commercial building electricity use by midcentury.
The largest share of that growth is expected to come from standalone data centers, which continue expanding rapidly as technology companies invest heavily in AI computing capacity, cloud services and digital infrastructure.
For construction owners, developers and contractors, the outlook signals continued long-term demand for data center construction, utility infrastructure expansion and energy-intensive facility development. The findings also reinforce mounting pressure on regional power grids as utilities race to support increasingly large and complex hyperscale campuses.
The report noted that electricity demand extends beyond servers themselves. Data centers require substantial cooling infrastructure to maintain performance and reliability for chips and IT equipment operating at high densities.
Federal analysts estimate cooling requirements within data center environments can be nearly three times more energy intensive than conventional commercial building space. Under the agency’s high-demand scenario, cooling-related electricity consumption alone increases significantly by 2050 as AI server deployments accelerate.
The study also highlighted how data center growth is reshaping overall commercial energy intensity. Electricity consumption per square foot across commercial buildings is projected to surpass historical records in the early 2030s, reversing decades of relative efficiency improvements in portions of the building sector.
For the construction industry, the trend is expected to drive additional demand for electrical infrastructure, backup power systems, mechanical cooling equipment and specialized mission-critical construction expertise.
Contractors involved in hyperscale and AI infrastructure development are already facing increased competition for electricians, HVAC specialists and power systems labor as project pipelines expand nationwide.
The projections come as major technology companies continue investing billions of dollars into AI-related infrastructure, fueling a multiyear construction cycle for large-scale data centers across key U.S. markets.
At the same time, the report underscores potential long-term risks tied to power availability, transmission capacity and grid reliability if electricity demand outpaces infrastructure expansion.
For developers and infrastructure owners, energy access is increasingly becoming a determining factor in site selection, project feasibility and construction scheduling for future data center campuses.
The Energy Information Administration noted that its outlook assumes varying levels of future server efficiency improvements depending on demand scenarios. Even with expected efficiency gains, however, overall electricity consumption continues rising because of sustained growth in installed server capacity and AI-related computing demand.
Originally reported by U.S. Energy Information Administration.
